Sunday, March 17, 2013

The old regime and the revolution

FOR some of China’s more than 500m internet users michael kors handbags big news story of michael kors handbags sale week has not been michael kors handbags oullet long-scheduled one that michael kors handbags cheap ir country has a new president, Xi Jinping, who already has more important jobs running michael kors handbags wholesale Communist Party and chairing its military commission. Ramichael kors handbags macy's r it was michael kors handbags discount unscheduled, unwelcome and unexplained arrival down a river into Shanghai of mcihael kors outlet putrescent carcasses of thousands of dead pigs, apparently dumped michael kors oullet store re by farmers upstream. The latest in an endless series of public-health, pollution and corruption scandals, it is hard to think of a more potent (and disgusting) symbol of michael kors outlet online view, common among internet users, that, for all its astonishing economic advance, michael kors outlet handbags re is something rotten in michael kors factory outlet state of China, and that change will have to come.

Many think it will. According to Andrew Nathan, an American scholar, “michael kors hamiltion outlet consensus is stronger than at any time since michael kors offical outlet 1989 Tiananmen crisis that michael kors bags outlet resilience of michael kors wallet outlet authoritarian regime in…China is approaching its limits.” Mr Nathan, who a decade ago coined michael kors discount outlet term “authoritarian resilience” to describe michael kors canada Chinese Communist Party’s ability to adapt and survive, was contributing, in michael kors canada sale Journal of Democracy, an American academic quarterly, to a collection of essays with michael kors handbags titillating title: “China at michael kors handbags sale tipping point?”

Ever since michael kors handbags oullet death of Mao Zedong in 1976, foreigners have been predicting michael kors handbags cheap demise of one-party rule. Surely a political system designed for a centrally planned economy with virtually no private sector cannot indefinitely survive more or less intact in michael kors handbags wholesale vibrant, open new China. In 1989 China went to michael kors handbags macy's brink of revolution. When reform came to michael kors handbags discount Soviet Union and its satellites, for a while China seemed like mcihael kors outlet next domino, waiting to topple. But michael kors oullet store party proved far more durable?and popular?than seemed possible in 1989. And as China’s economy soared and michael kors outlet online Western democracies floundered, authoritarianism proved more resilient than ever. With China booming, few tried to emulate michael kors outlet handbags Arab spring of 2011. They were easily dealt with by michael kors factory outlet pervasive “stability-maintenance” machinery.

No single change explains why China might be nearer to a tipping point now. But michael kors hamiltion outlet evolution of Chinese society is eroding some of michael kors offical outlet bases of party rule. Fear may be diminishing. Nearly 500m Chinese are under 25 and have no direct memory of michael kors bags outlet bloody suppression of michael kors wallet outlet Tiananmen protests: michael kors discount outlet government has done its best to keep michael kors canada m in michael kors canada sale dark about it. A few public dissidents still write open letters and court harassment and jail sentences. But millions join in subversive chatter online, mocking michael kors handbags party when not ignoring it.

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